The accelerated increase in greenhouse gas emissions due to current production and consumption dynamics is resulting in irreversible global warming on our planet. The effects of climate change are increasingly visible worldwide, including increased precipitation and extended periods of drought, flooding, more frequent extreme weather events, and high climate variability.
These effects are even more noticeable in vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, which is directly impacted by climate change, and unfortunately, developing countries that depend largely on this economic activity are at high risk from the changes brought about by global warming, resulting in problems of economic stability, food insecurity, and related social issues.
Pakistan is a country that depends heavily on agriculture; according to the most recent national statistics, this activity represents 23% of its GDP and is even more relevant in rural areas, where 65% of the population depends on it.
However, Pakistan is one of the ten countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change. This phenomenon has a direct effect on the economic sector, and according to FAO, in the developing countries of South Asia, it will reduce agricultural yields as they will be greatly affected by both short-term climate variability and long-term climate change.
Climatic variability would incite major impacts on the environment and its socio-economic sectors, comprising agriculture and food safety, water resources, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, and biodiversity.
The worst global warming effect on Pakistani agriculture is imminent, as it has emerged as a main problem over the recent years, mainly highlighting some of its direct effects on crop yields, like rainfall and flooding, and high climate variability, among others like the proliferation of diseases and biological changes. As well as indirect effects on the social and economic dynamics of the country such as price increases, changes in food production and consumption and possible risk to food security and nutrition.
Pakistan is extremely susceptible to climate hazards such as seasonal and flash floods, cyclones, and droughts, devastating situations that are becoming more frequent. In 2022, melting glaciers caused by global warming and an intense monsoon season with torrential rains caused devastating floods in Pakistan, destroying entire crops. According to early estimates, the floods caused more than USD 10 billion in damage to crops, livestock, housing, infrastructure, and irrigation systems.
In addition, Pakistan’s water resources are under great pressure due to the scale of agricultural production and incessant population growth. Most of the country’s water resources, about 90%, are used for agriculture, highlighting the importance of water supply security for both agricultural and domestic use.
Climate change also causes changes in crop growing seasons, affecting biodiversity and ecosystems that are crucial for sustainable agriculture. Habitat alteration due to climate change can lead to the loss of plant and animal species that are essential for pollination, natural pest control, and soil fertility.
These changes jeopardize traditional agricultural systems and reduce the resilience of ecosystems to pests and diseases. They also expose the population to the risk of disease as happened in the country after the 2010 – 2014 floods, where diseases such as dengue, cholera, malaria, diarrhea, and other respiratory diseases occurred.
On the other side, Pakistan is a warm region and due to its geographical location, it experiences an increase in temperature, even higher than the global mean temperature. It means, therefore, such an increase in temperature has implications for leading to changes in crop growth periods, thus reducing expected yields while causing the proliferation of pests.
Crops such as wheat and rice, fundamental to the country’s diet, are susceptible to temperature changes. Excessive heat can reduce the length of the growing cycle of these crops, resulting in lower yield and quality. In addition, high temperatures increase the demand for water, an already scarce resource in many rural areas of Pakistan, exacerbating tensions in water use for agriculture, drinking, and other uses.
These direct effects on crops and all conditions of climate variability have direct repercussions on the social and economic conditions of regions that are highly dependent on agriculture, as is the case of Pakistan. In addition, the current conditions are already unfavorable because 80% of the poor population is in rural areas of the country, a population that depends mostly on agricultural activities. These populations are also small-scale farmers, with farms of less than 5 hectares, making their capacity to adapt and resist climate change conditions even more complex.
This makes Pakistan’s agricultural regions an extremely vulnerable sector, which can easily collapse in the face of crop shocks, as well as can be confronted with changes in food supply and unstable market conditions.
Due to the reduction in crop yields and production, it is predicted that by 2040, global agricultural production will be reduced by 8% to 10%, which will inevitably cause a rise in crop prices, specifically in Pakistan may increase the cost of rice, wheat, maize, and sugarcane. In this sense, food security is compromised, which may lead to tensions over resources and available food, increasing social inequality, where the poor population will surely be the most affected.
This is why Pakistan must commit to adopting climate change adaptation and mitigation measures as soon as possible, to avoid causing damage that could be irreversible. It is already a situation of national concern, both on the part of farmers themselves, communities, and the government. According to some studies, adaptation strategies that could work best for Pakistan include variability in crop types, soil conservation, changes in planting dates, new and more efficient irrigation methods, and planting of live fences such as trees that provide ecosystem services to crops.
Government agencies as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must commit to the implementation of climate change adaptability strategies within their agendas and plans in the short term. All seeking to increase the resilience of Pakistan, one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. International collaboration also plays a vital role in combating the effects of global warming. Pakistan can benefit from the sharing of technologies, knowledge, and financial resources through global cooperatives to address the challenges of climate change.
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