By Mansoor Qaisrani
Every country that rises does so with a plan. The United States grew through innovation and strong institutions. China rose by linking production with exports. Even smaller nations like Vietnam and Bangladesh advanced by following a clear economic direction. Pakistan has never done that. Our economy keeps moving in circles because we lack a long-term plan based on data and discipline.
Pakistan today has a GDP of about $373 billion. Inflation is near 20 percent, and growth stands at around 2.4 percent. Exports total roughly $30 billion, while imports are almost double that. Public debt is close to 80 percent of GDP, and nearly half of government revenue goes toward interest payments. These numbers reflect not just crisis, but confusion — evidence that our economy runs without a coherent idea of what we want to become.
The idea we need is simple: Pakistan must become a production and export-driven economy built on local energy, agriculture, and human capital. We must reduce dependence on imports and loans — not through isolation, but through smarter choices. I call this idea balanced self-reliance. It means producing more at home, selling more abroad, and borrowing less from others.
Balanced self-reliance has three parts.
The first is domestic production. Pakistan imports goods worth more than $55 billion each year. A large share includes food, machinery, and chemicals that can be partly produced within the country. The government should identify at least ten sectors where local production is feasible and provide stable policies and access to credit. Selective tariffs may be used — but only for a few years. After that, industries must stand on their own.
The second part is export growth. Pakistan’s export-to-GDP ratio is below 10 percent, while Bangladesh stands near 15 percent and Vietnam above 25 percent. This highlights how much potential we lose. To fix this, we must focus on three areas: textiles, technology, and food processing. Exports should be granted tax stability for at least five years and access to energy and financing at fixed rates. Rather than offering subsidies, the government should provide predictability.
The third part is human capital and remittances. Nearly one million Pakistanis go abroad for work each year, sending around $30 billion home. With better training in digital and technical fields, remittances could reach $50 billion within a decade. The government should establish a National Skills Mission to train half a million young people annually for both domestic and overseas employment.
Tax and fiscal reforms must support this plan. Pakistan collects taxes worth only 12 percent of GDP. Raising this to 15 percent could free over $10 billion for development spending. This requires bringing retail and real estate into the tax net through digital systems and reducing waste. Each ministry should publish annual spending and performance reports online.
Inflation control also needs a firm hand. The State Bank should set a clear inflation target of 8 percent and maintain tight monetary policy until that goal is met. Price stability builds confidence among citizens and investors — without it, no economic plan can succeed.
Foreign policy must align with economic goals. Pakistan should not depend on aid or loans for survival. Trade with neighbors and regional energy cooperation can reduce costs. Investment from overseas Pakistanis can be encouraged by offering protection and partnership in public projects.
The theory of balanced self-reliance rests on one truth: a country that produces, sells, and saves in balance controls its destiny. This is not protectionism; it is strategic realism. It recognizes that Pakistan cannot isolate itself from the world but also cannot rely on others indefinitely.
If Pakistan follows this path, GDP could reach $600 billion within ten years, inflation could fall below 10 percent, and exports could double. These are not dreams but realistic outcomes grounded in discipline and consistency.
The world respects nations that act with purpose. Pakistan has the talent and resources — what it lacks is direction. The time for speeches has passed; the time for steady action has come. A nation grows when it believes in its own plan and sustains it through every political change. That is the lesson history teaches — and the only way forward.
About the Author:
Mansoor Ahmed Qaisrani is a scholar and researcher of international relations who has been affiliated with the Institute of Regional Studies, the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute, and PTV News. He writes on foreign policy, economics, defense, sociology, and the judiciary.
Email: mqaisrani634@gmail.com
