In early nineties with the concerted efforts of Gen Aslam Baig, leaders of different factions of Afghan groups got together in holy city of Mecca. They reached an agreement in front of Kaaba.
A friend of mine rang me up from Lahore and asked for my comments. My reply was instant that they would recede by next day. It exactly happened that way.
On February 29, 2020 there was another agreement. But, this time the actors are different. Americans are known to break their promises. Statement of President Trump that in case of breach of agreement, America would return.
Take it as a joke. Americans have been saying that many times before too. Vietnam War was a crushing defeat. Afghanistan has been another in the series of their wrongs. They are running out of Afghanistan this time, saving themselves the fall from grace like in Somalia.
Most importantly, the most difficult time starts now. Taliban have come out very strong. Ashraf Ghani and his clique has enjoyed the perks under the umbrella of Americans and active involvement of India.
The Afghans are fiercely divided factions. Northern Alliance is predominantly Shia and Persian speaking. The major groups are Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara. Within themselves they have their differences but are deeply influenced by Iran.
Taliban are Sunni and Pashto speaking. Leaders like Hikmat Yar have tremendous control over their clans. In many cases a Pashto speaking group is bigger than the all parties joined together as Northern Alliance.
The most difficult question is as to how these redically divergent groups will sit together and bring peace to the war torn country? Who will be the mediator and arbitrator? In this whole scenario Pakistan has the pivotal position. But without bringing in Iran, probably, it will be a difficult proposition. India will have to be sidelined effectively.
The Indian Government will not sit back. Though, they have now chosen the path of violence against the Muslims in India. The planned violent activities are typical of the extreme right, absolute fascist RSS Hindu BJP Government.
I would say that it is a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. But, it warrants a great deal of political acumen. It is here that we are at a loss. Our so-called political elite, specially of the parties in opposition, is involved in their own petty face saving measures.
They are mostly indulging in mudslinging opponents. They all must realize that this is the time to rally together to ward off the lurking dangers against our sovereignty. At the same time government must take certain immediate measures.
Some of the suggestions are :
1-Without wasting time, a concerted propaganda compaign be launched. ISPR, Directorate of Psychological Operations GHQ, PR Department of Centre and Provinces, Department of Political Science of the renowned universities, etc be tasked to plan and suggest the themes for propaganda and anti propaganda activities. Let DG ISPR be the Chief Coordinator.
2-Main stream media to telecast English based programs along with the urdu and colloquial languages. Let it be known that in many areas in Pakistan, like interior Sindh, interior Punjab, Khyber Pakhtun Khaw, Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan and Kashmir, urdu is not understood. It is most important to telecast and broadcast the programs in the languages which are understood. English is most important language that is understood almost in most of the world. Therefore, more programs on main stream media.
3-Government must immediately convene a briefing to all the diplomatic community members of the world to provide the best possible information on the situation in Kashmir and in India. Atrocities being metted out to the Muslims in India must be highlighted.
4-Call the all parties conference and apprise them of the measures being taken by the government to ward off the threats from India. Any absentees from this will automatically be taken to task.
5-Joint session of parliament be immediately convened. Prime Minister or Foreign Minister must apprise the members about the latest developments and the measures being taken by the government.
I am of the view that rejoicing be postponed for a while. The most difficult time for the region is starting now. India will not swallow the defeat easily. They have their assets in Afghanistan. They will try their best to stall the progress of peace. It is now that Pakistan must play its cards sensibly. Prudence is the only way to succeed. Modi and his clique must be bridled. This is possible by resolute statesmanship.
Also Read: Fast changing regional geo political situation
