History has been a witness to arms race among the nations. The arms, however, may vary from traditional to nuclear. The latter is far more dangerous.
The best example quoted for a nuclear arms race is between USA and the USSR during the Cold War. India and Pakistan are the two countries seen engaged in modern day nuclear arms race. But soon, we could have a new vigorously-pursued nuclear arms race in the Middle East which would be far more dangerous than anything before.
The Iranian stockpile of Low Enriched Uranium has almost tripled since November 2019, the opponents of Iran claim. According to them it now far exceeds the limits of the increasingly obsolete 2015 nuclear deal. The fear is not of a direct nuclear strike by Iran on her neighbours, rather it may embolden Tehran’s foreign policy.
In my opinion, few factors may lead to an arms race in the Middle East. Iran’s possible nuclear pursuit can trigger an arms race among its neighbours in the Gulf as they would take Iran’s chase for the arms a potential threat to their very existence. Saudi Arabia and Iran are already in the midst of a proxy war.
The other reason is Israel. They are the only nation in the region known to have a viable nuclear weapons arsenal, and they are the only nuclear power to not have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Moreover, Israel is not willing to let her neighbors gain nuclear weapons easily, as has been demonstrated in the past. It also destroyed nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria in 1981 and 2007 respectively.
So what is likely to happen if the Middle East gets embroiled in a nuclear arms race? Well, as much as the Middle Eastern governments are uncompromising in their respective political pursuits, there are limits to their carelessness.
When faced with a possible retaliatory threat, they are unlikely to use nuclear weapons carelessly. But, one thing cannot be ignored that policymakers in the nuclear-armed states are likely to become more emboldened and reckless, leading to a very aggressive foreign policy. Moreover, the Arab Spring showed the nations of the Middle East have one of the most volatile governments in the world.
If the government of a possible nuclear-armed Middle Eastern nation collapses, it could have devastating consequences. After the breakup of the USSR, there were many instances where nuclear weapons were almost stolen, and the successor state of Russia in the early days was barely able to save them from falling into dangerous hands.
Now, imagine what would happen if a nuclear-armed Middle Eastern nation were to collapse. The Middle East has a chronic issue with terrorism, and a nuclear device could fall into the hands of a terrorist group which may be more than willing to use it.
However, there is an upside to this. To create a viable nuclear weapons program is extremely difficult. There are great financial costs and also political costs. If the gulf nations of Saudi Arabia or UAE decide to pursue a nuclear program, it will lead to a severe deterioration of relations with the Americans.
And it seems, that is a price they may not be willing to pay unless existentially threatened. So it is yet to be seen how a Middle Eastern nuclear arms race will go, however, one thing is for certain that it may start happening pretty soon when Iran goes nuclear.
Also Read:The potential dark side of the militarization of Gulf societies
