On his homecoming after four years of self-exile, Nawaz Sharif (NS) was given a VVIP protocol, which showed that the deep state is looking at him as the next partner in the government.
He was facilitated to get a protective bail at the Islamabad airport’s VIP lounge before he flew to Lahore on his chartered plane.
He was flown to Minar e Pakistan where his party Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had arranged a grand reception for him by arranging a public gathering. They bussed people across Pakistan, especially from the party’s erstwhile stronghold Punjab province.
There was no mention of “vote of izat do” -an anti-establishment stance Nawaz and his daughter had pressed after his ouster from power in his last term as prime minister.
He did not press on timely holding of elections, a demand by PTI and PPP. This also means he might accept it, if elections go beyond January next year.
With Ishaq Dar sitting in the front row behind his podium, Nawaz did not give any plan of action to revive the ailing economy, which continued to nose-dive during 16th months term of PDM in power led by his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif, having Dar as finance minister.
It seems he has happily accepted the establishment’s hand in his bid to come to power for the fourth time as premier.
His speech in Lahore focused more on hardships he and his family faced during the past five years than giving any plan of action to steer Pakistan out of the current crisis which common Pakistanis were keen to hear.
Though, he mentioned that he does not intend to take revenge from his political opponents, but amid the ongoing ruthless crackdown against his political archrival Imran Khan’s PTI, the enforced disappearances and illegal detentions would not absolve him given as well when he would be deemed as pawn of establishment.
Within a few days after his return, the caretaker government of Punjab on October 24, suspended his sentence in Al-Azazia Steel Mills corruption case in which he had been sentenced to seven years in jail in 2018. He was fined Rupees 1.5 billion along with jail sentence in this case.
Interim government extended this relief under section 401 of the country’s Code of Criminal Procedure. The legality of the move is being criticized, later the Punjab government said it has just moved the case to the court.
In its hearing on October 24 at Islamabad High Court, the court has given time to National Accountability Bureau (NAB) till Thursday (Oct. 26) to decide about its final stance regarding appeal on protective bail granted to Nawaz Sharif at the airport on October 21.
NAB, which made every effort in 2018 to establish that Nawaz Sharif was corrupt to the core, seemed to have taken a U-turn. It did not oppose protective bail plea on October 21. NAB also did not contest it before IHC during the October 24th hearing.
NAB’s prosecutor general went to the extent of saying that “NAB will not arrest Nawaz Sharif even if the protective bail is not confirmed”. This shows that NAB is all willing to facilitate him in all the cases before the bureau for now.
In another case before judge Muhammad Bashir in Accountability Court Islamabad, Nawaz Sharif was granted a bail and the judge revoked his arrest warrants in Toshakhana case. The court has fixed November 20 as the next date of hearing the case.
With these developments unfolding during the past few days, it seems there will be pre-election manipulations making the field clear for PML-N to come to power once again.
Still there are some hurdles on the way for Nawaz Sharif to come to power for the 4th time as Prime Minister of Pakistan.
Most important of these challenges is the legal question about his eligibility to contest the elections as long his conviction of lifetime ban remains intact. Under a recent Supreme Court verdict one cannot file a review petition in cases pertaining to the period before the judgment has been announced earlier month.
In the changed political and social environment, despite establishment’s tacit support, would he be able to mobilize mass public support after a 16- month disastrous performance of PDM led government led by his younger brother. All key decisions during Shahbaz’s tenure were being taken after approval of Nawaz.
Nawaz Sharif’s return speech was full of rhetoric but lacked substance. It is yet to be seen if his party has any fresh ideas or concrete program that can attract the masses, especially among middle class urban youth where PTI has strong support. In case he could not garner a good support, his party would have to form a weak government in case it comes to power.
PML-N was successful in gathering a good crowd in terms of numbers at Minar e Pakistan Lahore on October 21 but this crowd lacked fervour which should have been there for a popular leader’s welcome.
Amid these challenges Nawaz Sharif’s coming to power once again riding on deep state’s support, it will be yet another hybrid rule with PML-N as partner of establishment this time instead of PTI.
This will further weaken the fragile democratic process in Pakistan and strengthen the stronghold of establishment in affairs of the state.
