ISLAMABAD- It all began back in 2001, when the attacks popularly known as 9/11, took place on American soil and left the US shocked and the entire world terrorized.
The horrors of terror at that time were so high that it hurled America into a hasty, impulsive and an ill-planned war.
The US-led ‘War on terror’ in Afghanistan is now 17-years old making it the longest war in the American history with no subsequent results as far. The aim of War on Terror was to fight and defeat terrorism from the face of the earth ‘that Afghanistan was harbouring’. Though later on, it turned into the task of nation-building too.
The war has seen three different administrations, the ‘Bush’, ‘Obama’, and the ‘Trump’ but there is little or no progress in the outcome of the war ever since the Taliban government was thrown out of power soon after the invasion under Bush administration.
And now things seem to be moving towards a more unlikely, unwanted situation as the news of Trump withdrawing forces from Afghanistan has been making rounds for quite some time.
Around 14,000 US, and roughly 8,000 NATO and allied forces troops are stationed in Afghanistan helping and training Afghan forces to maintain security situation in the country. Now stalled, the series of round of peace dialogue between Afghan Taliban and Zalmay Khalilzad – the US special representative, were seen as a breakthrough and a sign of progress in Afghan peace process in a long time by both the parties which was conditioned with troops withdrawal on the US part and assurance of counter-terrorism measures on the Taliban’s.
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Following the dialogues that took place in Qatar, later last year, the Trump administration announced to cut off its military presence in the region by half and complete cut off by 2020. The decision to pullout forces from Afghanistan and Syria came simultaneously.
Trump’s plan of pulling out US from all overseas wars and more specifically the Afghan war, it all seems easier said than done.
“leaving Afghanistan could lead to second 9/11 coming our way,”
Leaving Afghanistan quagmire would have disastrous implications not only on the US itself, but most of the world. As Lindsay Graham, US Republican Senator had said that “leaving Afghanistan could lead to second 9/11 coming our way,” US withdrawal would also ultimately lead to NATO and other allied forces withdrawal that would descend the country into an unimaginable civil war.
While it would have great implications on the US, the major affected of it however would most certainly be Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors Pakistan and Iran, both of which happen to already host the largest number of Afghan refugees and have suffered the most in terms of terrorism from Afghanistan. US withdrawal would not only mean troops withdrawal but economic aid halt too.
Both of these conditions would have two major implications; civil war and failed economy. On one hand, troop withdrawal would leave Afghanistan with civil war, while on the other hand, economic aid halt would leave Afghanistan with severe famine conditions. And both of it would make Afghanistan a hell for living thereby creating refugee crisis for the world to bear.
One of the major risks of it would be for Pakistan since it is the closest from the war region. Pakistan is already home to 1.4 million Afghans, and now can barely afford anymore. Afghan refugees are not only burden on Pakistan’s economy given the country’s already crumbling economy but also have remained significant threat to its national security.
Not to mention, Kalashankof culture, illegal trade of goods and drugs, extreme rise in terror activities, are some of the legacies of Soviet-withdrawal. So it can be said that US withdrawal may also have the same implications on Pakistan as did the Soviet withdrawal.
Moreover, Civil war in Afghanistan would require Pakistan to invest more on Af-Pak border which Pakistan cannot afford because it is investing quite a lot on Indo-Pak border. And according to General Zubair Hayat, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, nearly two hundred thousand Pakistani army soldiers were involved in war on terror in Pakistani tribal regions.
US withdrawal in no way is in Pakistan’s interest until the ideal peace condition in Afghanistan is met
These areas have been freed from terrorists after so much effort and sacrifice of the blood and treasure and rehabilitation process there is going on. So Pakistan really doesn’t want to risk that. Therefore, US withdrawal in no way is in Pakistan’s interest until the ideal peace condition in Afghanistan is met. Law and order and Stable Afghanistan is only in Pakistan’s interest that US presence is making sure of.
Also, it will create space for evil and anti-Pakistan segments to benefit from anarchy in the Afghan region to plot terror activities and cause instability in Pakistan. Especially after big economic missions like CPEC and OBOR, Pakistan has become more prone to such activities. Afghanistan would become safe haven to terror organizations like ISIS, Al-Qaida, Da’eshetc to work on their missions more openly which possess quite security threats to Pakistan.
With all that said, it is also debated whether the US is really leaving or not. By being in Afghanistan, US is securing its national security interests in more ways than just one. It is having an eye on its biggest rivals Russia, Iran, and China.
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Moreover, what would make US to stay for longer than expected is the deadly outcomes of the possible withdrawal that would be worse than one can even imagine. The US has spent millions of dollars and sacrificed an almost equal amount of bloodshed in the war in Afghanistan, although none of it proven to be enough to build a for-peace Afghanistan. But it can’t leave it midway. However, it is true that military solution is no solution for Afghan peace, but so is not withdrawal at this point in time without any concrete peace deal with Afghan Taliban.
The Taliban which crumbled soon after the US entered Afghanistan is said to be having control over most parts of Afghanistan than it did at any point since the invasion. It is all indicator of how badly US has done Afghanistan.
And an instable Afghanistan is more a problem for others than it is for itself. That is why it is upon everybody to make sure of Afghanistan’s security that has its security linked with Afghanistan’s.
(Nahl Ishtiaq is a student of National Defence University, Islamabad)
I like this post, enjoyed this one thanks for putting up. “Fear not for the future, weep not for the past.” by Percy Bysshe Shelley.